Two unlike businesses, one industrial multiple — the consolidated frame is the mispricing.

• Wind is 47% of EBITDA on 8% of revenue. FY25 wind segment EBITDA was ₹163.54 Cr at a ~41% margin from a ~₹398 Cr revenue base; generator-set EBITDA was ₹188 Cr at a ~8.4% margin from ₹2,255 Cr revenue. Treating the consolidated 13% margin as one number hides this asymmetry.
• The wind business is contracted infrastructure, not industrial earnings. 12 Gujarat wind farms run on 25-year fixed-tariff PPAs with GUVNL and SECI; weighted-average remaining life is 18 years; tariffs sit at ₹3.43–₹3.81/kWh. That cash-flow stack belongs at infrastructure DCF multiples, not the 27× P/E the consolidated stock trades at.
• The market hasn't seen the SOTP frame yet. No sell-side coverage exists; first analyst initiations land 60–90 days post-listing (June–September 2026). Whichever multiple framework gets adopted will set the next 6-month consensus anchor.

Revenue tripled in five years; FY25 margin compressed; Q3 FY26 net-profit beat was a tax-credit one-off.

Generator-Set EBITDA fell 23% in FY25 (₹245 Cr → ₹188 Cr) on CPCB IV+ input-cost absorption; Wind EBITDA rose 15% (₹143 Cr → ₹163 Cr) and offset most of the drag. Q3 FY26 reported net profit ₹98 Cr against operating profit of just ₹78 Cr, driven by a -69% effective tax rate — the credit is one-off and will not repeat. The single FY26 metric that matters is whether Generator-Set segmental EBITDA recovers to ₹220 Cr+ in the first listed-entity annual report due September–November 2026.

One of three Cummins India OEM partners — bounded oligopoly, not unrivalled monopoly.

• Cummins says three. CRISIL's November 2025 rating rationale states Powerica is one of three OEMs for Cummins India Ltd. The General Supply Agreement was formalised in writing on 11 June 2025 — Cummins waited 41 years to put the partnership on paper, signalling commitment.
• CPCB IV+ pre-qualification raises the entry bar. Mandatory since 1 July 2024 for all Indian DG sets above 800 kW. Powerica is grandfathered through the Cummins relationship; a hypothetical fourth OEM would need to fund compliance from scratch.
• The fragility is supplier dependency. Cummins is the principal; Powerica is one of three agents. The single largest moat-fragility test is whether Cummins announces direct go-to-market expansion for HHP DG in a future quarterly call.

Forensic risk score 32 (Watch) — clean cash conversion offsetting two earnings-quality yellow flags.

• Cash conversion is genuine. 5-year CFO/operating-profit ratio averages 90%+; CFO/Net Income 3-year average is 1.21×; FCF/NI 3-year is 0.85×. FY25 negative FCF (₹-51 Cr) is fully traceable to ₹352 Cr of wind CWIP, not earnings strain.
• Q3 FY26 -69% tax rate. A ₹68 Cr tax credit (likely DTA reversal or MAT credit utilisation) flattered headline net profit while operating profit halved sequentially. Q4 FY26 effective tax rate must normalise to 25–31% to validate underlying earnings.
• Family-trust control + non-Big-4 auditor. 77.18% promoter holding via three Oberoi family trusts; statutory auditor is Kapoor & Parekh Associates (FRN: 104803W). No qualifications in restated examination; first listed-entity audit cycle reports September–November 2026.

Three dated events in the next 4 months will resolve most of the bull-bear gap.

• Q4 FY26 + Full Year FY26 results · May–June 2026. Tests tax-rate normalisation (25–31%), full-year DG units sold (>7,500 = no share loss), and Generator-Set EBITDA recovery (≥₹220 Cr = bull validated). Bull target ₹620 and bear target ₹360 hinge on this print.
• IPO lock-in expiries · May 2026 (30-day) + July 2026 (90-day). Anchor allocations unlock; on a 22.8% public float, even minor anchor selling can pressure the tape 5–8%.
• First sell-side initiation cluster · June–September 2026. Lead managers (ICICI Securities, IIFL, Nuvama) plus adjacent industry analysts. Whether they apply industrial multiples to consolidated earnings or attempt sum-of-parts decides the next 6-month consensus anchor.